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Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #871 
This video of Corbyn seeming to question Israel's right to exist, on Iranian TV no less, should really seal his fate:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7738205/Corbyn-says-BBC-biased-saying-Israel-right-exist.html

Unfortunately, although his radicalism seems to harm his popularity, it hasn't been able to see him off, and I fear the same will be the case here.
bator

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Reply with quote  #872 
quite shocking from a serious candidate for the prime ministership
azadi

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Reply with quote  #873 
I'm endorsing the Conservative Party in the British general election on December 12, despite disliking British conservatism, because I want Britain to leave the EU on January 31 and because Corbyn supports holding a second Brexit referendum. In addition, I dislike Corbyn, because he is a republican, is opposed to the existence of the State of Israel, tolerates anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, supports the Islamic Republic of Iran and supports PKK/PYD. I strongly disagree with Boris Johnson on Kurdish independence and on Putin. I support Kurdish independence from Iraq and Putin is my preferred current non-royal state leader, while Boris Johnson is opposed to Kurdish independence from Iraq and hates Putin. But Boris Johnson is a staunch supporter of Brexit, and Brexit is the most important issue by far in the British general election on December 12. 
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #874 
I have been asking around with people I know, but no sign yet that your encouragement has appeared on the Tory campaign literature. Seeing as you made these exact comments days or weeks ago, you'd have thought it would have turned up by now!
azadi

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Reply with quote  #875 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wessexman
I have been asking around with people I know, but no sign yet that your encouragement has appeared on the Tory campaign literature. Seeing as you made these exact comments days or weeks ago, you'd have thought it would have turned up by now!


That's because I'm insufficiently famous. But the Tories need the votes of the British Azadists, also known as Lexiters, on December 12. The majority of the Britons are sick and tired of Tory austerity, but the Lexiters may hold their noses and vote for the Tories on December 12.
Peter

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Reply with quote  #876 
There's a fair amount of confidence by now (half past one in the morning here) of an 80+ Conservative majority. A hung parliament, my biggest fear, looks out of the question, and a Labour government, never a serious prospect, certainly won't be happening with the Labour vote collapsing everywhere. So we will be formally leaving the EU on 31st January, and even more importantly will have a government that can actually govern and can negotiate with confidence that the Commons won't block every opportunity to move forward. I'm very pleased, obviously, but now it's time for bed!
MatthewJTaylor

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Reply with quote  #877 
Alas my Scotland has fallen into the trap of nationlism.
The UK government must take a tough stance to maintain the union.

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Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #878 
It's a great day, but Scotland is the one blip. However, some of the SNP gains are due to the further Labour collapse there. In the FPTP system, Labour and SNP and Tories all had large vote shares in some seats where the Tories got the plurality, but the combined Labour-SNP vote would have been more than the Tory vote. With Labour gone, the SNP have consolidated the left-wing vote. The Tories do seem to have lost votes in Scotland, but far less than Labour. So I'm not sure it's a victory for Scots nationalism per se, but obviously the SNP will make it out to be and campaign hard to get a referendum. Johnson should remain firm. Firstly because the idea of another referendum this side of 2030 should be ruled out in principle. Once a generation or so is surely sensible. But also the SNP are likely to make a hash of ruling Scotland and this might well make them a lot less popular by the next general election.
Peter

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Reply with quote  #879 
Current prediction is mid-70s, so down on the earlier forecast, but hey, a majority of 75 is good enough. One of 25 would be! But the advantage of a big majority is that it makes the leadership rebellion-proof. I certainly agree that the SNP gains are a major spot on the overall rosy picture, but I am sure the Prime Minister will stand firm in refusing a wildly premature second referendum. As he ought to. Especially since, as we know from Indyref 1, all that would happen if the SNP lost Indyref 2 (which they likely would) is that they would start agitating for a third edition.

BTW The Conservatives have in actual fact won, rather than being predicted to win. Last figure I saw was 343 seats already, with 326 needed for a majority.
azadi

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Reply with quote  #880 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MatthewJTaylor
Alas my Scotland has fallen into the trap of nationlism.
The UK government must take a tough stance to maintain the union.

Preventing a second Scottish independence referendum is an assault on the right to national self-determination.
Britain will leave the EU on January 31. The EU will finally be rid of an Atlanticist Trojan horse. Auf Wiedersehen!

Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #881 
It seems the SNP will end up with 48 seats, which is a huge gain from their 2017 total, but 7 seats less than predicted by the exit poll. That's something at least.

No one, I think, is ruling out another Scottish referendum in the future, just not in the next few years. Even as someone with a natural liking for small states, I recognise there needs to be stability in a country. Having rolling independence referenda would be an obvious way of endangering that stability. Once a generation (15-30 years) is quite enough. Westminster shouldn't even think of allowing another one until into the 2030s. Of course, it becomes another matter if the SNP somehow decide to hold one themselves. I think we'd be obliged to recognise that: we don't want to go down the Spanish route, I think.

We can put pressure on them, though, in various ways, like suggesting we will cooperate a lot less after independence if they go that way. I also think we should definitely hold them to Salmond's promise about the Shetlands. These islands are as much Norwegian in outlook as Scottish, and feel themselves so. They have expressed a desire to decide their own future if Scotland votes for independence - whether to go with Scotland, remain in the UK, or separate from both. They should be allowed to make their own choice, and take their oil, which is most of the British North Sea oil, with them.
azadi

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Reply with quote  #882 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wessexman
It seems the SNP will end up with 48 seats, which is a huge gain from their 2017 total, but 7 seats less than predicted by the exit poll. That's something at least.

No one, I think, is ruling out another Scottish referendum in the future, just not in the next few years. Even as someone with a natural liking for small states, I recognise there needs to be stability in a country. Having rolling independence referenda would be an obvious way of endangering that stability. Once a generation (15-30 years) is quite enough. Westminster shouldn't even think of allowing another one until into the 2030s. Of course, it becomes another matter if the SNP somehow decide to hold one themselves. I think we'd be obliged to recognise that: we don't want to go down the Spanish route, I think.

We can put pressure on them, though, in various ways, like suggesting we will cooperate a lot less after independence if they go that way. I also think we should definitely hold them to Salmond's promise about the Shetlands. These islands are as much Norwegian in outlook as Scottish, and feel themselves so. They have expressed a desire to decide their own future if Scotland votes for independence - whether to go with Scotland, remain in the UK, or separate from both. They should be allowed to make their own choice, and take their oil, which is most of the British North Sea oil, with them.

The last Scottish independence referendum was held before the Brexit referendum. The SNP wants Scotland to stay in the EU. If the majority of the Scots wants to dissolve the union with England in order to stay in the EU, the British government ought to allow Scotland to leave the union with England. I'm strongly opposed to Scotland obtaining independence as a republic, but Scotland obtaining independence as a Commonwealth realm is hardly unacceptable. 

Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #883 
There's always events that come after a referendum. The events in question were advertised to the British people in 2013 as a very real possibility (that they'd get to vote on continued EU membership), prior to the Scottish vote. I don't see that the Brexit referendum means much in terms of rerunning the independence referendum prematurely. The Scots voted. They can vote again, I suppose, in a decade or two. You can't just have rolling referenda. Why not have one every Friday? That's the EU way, but it isn't ours.

As I said, I suppose we'd be compelled to recognise the results of an SNP run referendum, if it was set up fairly. But we can do all we can to discourage that (without taking the Spanish route).
Peter

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Reply with quote  #884 
I disagree with your last point. A referendum without sanction from Westminster would not only lack legal force, it would lack moral force too. That is because a referendum without binding result (i.e. nothing will change whichever way the votes go -- a bit like Remainers wanted to achieve with the 2016 vote, except that did have legal sanction) is no more than a glorified opinion poll. It doesn't matter how or if you cast your vote, so people are as likely to use it to 'send a signal' as to express their actual desires. Or to not bother to vote at all. Not that I like to give her credit for anything, but it is to Nicola Sturgeon's credit that she has always insisted that separation can only come by legal means, not by UDI and not by an unauthorised referendum.

To Azadi, the Scottish people exercised their right to national self-determination only five years ago. And they self-determined to stay in the Union. To keep posing the question over and over until in exhaustion they give the desired answer is not democracy, it is profoundly anti-democratic bullying.


Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #885 
I can see your point, although the question then would be what happened if we refused to ever allow another referendum. It's something of a matter of judgement when and in what conditions such a poll would have moral force, but I think it could reach such a standard. Otherwise we would have to say the larger political body could always just block its smaller member from expressing its will. At least it would seem that such a poll should be followed by a binding one. Of course, there's no easy answers here. Basically no one admits that just any old part of a country can secede, but I think that Scotland has been recognised as having that right already, if it chooses.

Of course, we could say that morally it behooves the Scots to wait, given they have just had a vote and it isn't sensible to have another one. However, should the SNP run the poll much like any other vote and independence win, I think it would be very hard for Westminster to hold out. We're simply not going to go down the Spanish route, and the pressure from certain sections of developed world opinion would be strong
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