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Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #811 
I'm not sure where my response to Azadi went. Needless to say, I agree neither with the claim no deal will be economically disastrous nor that the single market has benefited Britain much on balance.

I do agree some reasonable, limited transitional arrangement is preferable to no deal. But a bad deal, like May's or no Brexit is worse than no deal.
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #812 
I agree that the Guardian is journalistically not a bad paper. It's biased, but it does do some good journalism. I suppose it probably wasn't a good idea to object to its use. What I most objected to was the repeated use as if it were a neutral source on the issue. It needs to be balanced by other sources on Brexit.
azadi

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Reply with quote  #813 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wessexman
I'm not sure where my response to Azadi went. Needless to say, I agree neither with the claim no deal will be economically disastrous nor that the single market has benefited Britain much on balance.

I do agree some reasonable, limited transitional arrangement is preferable to no deal. But a bad deal, like May's or no Brexit is worse than no deal.

Claiming, that a no deal Brexit is better than May's deal is utterly wrong. A Turkish-style customs union is a far better option than a no deal Brexit, because a no deal Brexit will wreck the economy of Great Britain. A Turkish-style customs union means, that Great Britain will leave the Single Market and will be able to end freedom of movement. A Turkish-style customs union will definitely not endanger British sovereignty, unlike remaining in the EU. 
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #814 
The notion that no deal will wreck our economy is project fear propaganda. It's extremely unlikely. There will be some mild or moderate short and medium term dislocation, but almost certainly not more than that, at the worst. As Norman Lamont said twenty-five years ago, there's almost no unambiguous economic benefit we get from EU membership, and things haven't changed much since.

May's deal was terrible. A customs union means we would be unable to make our own trade deals, which is a necessity, and opportunity, of leaving the EU.
azadi

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Reply with quote  #815 
Boris Johnson and the EU have finally agreed on a Brexit deal:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7582705/DUP-Arlene-Foster-Nigel-Dodds-say-support-Boris-Johnson-new-Brexit-deal-customs.html

Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #816 
As this article points out, a lot rides now on whether the EU grants an extension to article 50:

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/10/if-the-eu-now-refuses-an-extension-johnson-can-get-the-deal-through-parliament.html

If they don't, then they'll be a Brexit, one way or another. Either, most likely, the parliament will wish to avoid a no deal and even many remainers will vote for this deal, or it will be voted down and we'll get a no deal Brexit (probably my choice compared to this deal). But if the EU grant an extension, then who knows what will happen. Many remainers will no doubt feel free to vote down the deal in the hope of scuppering any Brexit, and some of the Spartans will vote it down for being a bad deal, and who knows if it will get enough support to pass. The limbo could continue.
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #817 
Well, it looks like the EU have made this deal unlikely to pass and probably condemned us to ongoing Brexit limbo by refusing to rule out an extension of article 50:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-and-eu-reach-brexit-deal-without-dup-backing

This will embolden hardcore remainers to hold out and try to overturn Brexit completely, and with the opposition of the DUP, Kate Joey, the Bruges Group, and other strong Brexiteer MPs and pundits, this vote is unlikely to pass.
azadi

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Reply with quote  #818 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wessexman
Well, it looks like the EU have made this deal unlikely to pass and probably condemned us to ongoing Brexit limbo by refusing to rule out an extension of article 50:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/boris-johnson-and-eu-reach-brexit-deal-without-dup-backing

This will embolden hardcore remainers to hold out and try to overturn Brexit completely, and with the opposition of the DUP, Kate Joey, the Bruges Group, and other strong Brexiteer MPs and pundits, this vote is unlikely to pass.

Brexiteers opposing Boris Johnson's deal makes no sense, because the deal allows Great Britain to leave the EU customs union. The DUP remains utterly unreasonable. Ulster has actually obtained significant concessions in the deal. Ulster will remain part of the UK customs territory. Goods entering Ulster from Great Britain will not be subject to the customs rules of the EU, if they stay in Ulster, but they will be subject to the customs rules of the EU, if they are sent from Great Britain to the Republic of Ireland through Ulster. That is quite reasonable. The DUP opposing the deal is madness. Their actions are motivated by Protestant sectarianism and hatred of the Republic of Ireland, not by loyalty to Great Britain. They are willing to severely damage the economy of Great Britain or trigger an extremely divisive second Brexit referendum for the sake of Protestant sectarianism. 
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #819 
You are talking nonsense, as usual, about the DUP and Ulster. This deal would make any British Unionist uneasy, hence Kate Hoey, the Bruges Group, and other leavers have condemned it on that point. It singles out Ulster, an integral part of the union, as separate from the rest of the UK, and it could easily fuel SNP desires for similar separate treatment. It had nothing necessarily to do with Protestant sectarianism. No deal is preferable, but I would take this deal if it's our best opportunity to get out, but as a Unionist it certainly unsettles me. Hopefully the separate treatment can be made temporary.
azadi

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Reply with quote  #820 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wessexman
You are talking nonsense, as usual, about the DUP and Ulster. This deal would make any British Unionist uneasy, hence Kate Hoey, the Bruges Group, and other leavers have condemned it on that point. It singles out Ulster, an integral part of the union, as separate from the rest of the UK, and it could easily fuel SNP desires for similar separate treatment. It had nothing necessarily to do with Protestant sectarianism. No deal is preferable, but I would take this deal if it's our best opportunity to get out, but as a Unionist it certainly unsettles me. Hopefully the separate treatment can be made temporary.

I dislike Ulster unionism, because it's based on Protestant sectarianism, but my support for Ulster being treated differently from Great Britain concerning customs isn't about opposition to Ulster unionism. It's about securing a Brexit deal, which makes it possible for Great Britain to strike independent trade deals. Ulster will stay part of the UK customs territory except concerning goods, which will enter the Republic of Ireland. Scotland is not comparable to Ulster, because Scotland has no ties to an EU member state, which is comparable to Ulster's ties to the Republic of Ireland.
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #821 
Ulster unionism is no more based on Protestant sectarianism than Nationalism is. They are both based on a complex intertwining of religious and ethnic identity. The only reason to say otherwise, as far as I can see, is bigotry and/or ignorance.

Ulster is a full part of Britain. It isn't some shared zone, a you so often imply. When or if the Nationalists get enough support to vote to leave, then things change. If the IRA don't like that, they should be crushed, as they were last time. At least this time they won't even get the kind of American support they relied on last time. You often seem to name trifling little distinctions as if these actually matter - as if the SNP will follow the niceties of your (rather questionable) analysis. They are simply going to say, with justice, that Ulster, another of the nations of Britain, has special arrangements, so Scotland should too.

Anyway, if Boris's deal fails today, it will be necessary to pursue no deal. The EU is poised to extend article 50 again, making it harder to imagine us ever leaving. The choice will really be no deal or no Brexit at that point, and that isn't really a choice.
azadi

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Reply with quote  #822 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wessexman
Ulster unionism is no more based on Protestant sectarianism than Nationalism is. They are both based on a complex intertwining of religious and ethnic identity. The only reason to say otherwise, as far as I can see, is bigotry and/or ignorance.

Ulster is a full part of Britain. It isn't some shared zone, a you so often imply. When or if the Nationalists get enough support to vote to leave, then things change. If the IRA don't like that, they should be crushed, as they were last time. At least this time they won't even get the kind of American support they relied on last time. You often seem to name trifling little distinctions as if these actually matter - as if the SNP will follow the niceties of your (rather questionable) analysis. They are simply going to say, with justice, that Ulster, another of the nations of Britain, has special arrangements, so Scotland should too.

Anyway, if Boris's deal fails today, it will be necessary to pursue no deal. The EU is poised to extend article 50 again, making it harder to imagine us ever leaving. The choice will really be no deal or no Brexit at that point, and that isn't really a choice.

Irish nationalism is non-sectarian. Irish nationalists have always wanted Protestants and Catholics to unite in the common name of Irishmen. The flag of the Republic of Ireland symbolizes peace between Catholics and Protestants. The Republic of Ireland grants Protestants freedom of religion. The first President of Ireland was a Protestant.
The Ulster Catholics suffered discrimination before the Troubles, and the DUP opposed ending discrimination of Ulster Catholics, unlike moderate Ulster Unionists like Terence O'Neill.
But I agree, that Irish republican terrorism is wrong, and that Ulster ought to remain part of the UK, unless a majority of the Ulstermen vote in favour of Irish unification in a referendum.
The SNP may demand special arrangements similar to those of Ulster, but the EU considers Ulster a special case. The EU will never grant Scotland similar special agreements. Scotland must share the fate of England, unless Scotland secedes from Great Britain and rejoins the EU.
A no deal Brexit will likely lead to the dissolution of the British union. Ulster will join the Republic of Ireland and Scotland will secede and join the EU. Gibraltar may be forced to join Spain in order to avoid economic collapse, because Spain will impose an embargo on Gibraltar, if a no deal Brexit happens. I hope, that the Parliament will approve Boris' deal, because it's a really good deal, which allows Great Britain to strike its own trade deals, while preserving the economic ties between Ulster and the Republic of Ireland. I don't want Scotland to secede from Great Britain. Scotland is culturally far closer to England than to continental Europe, and Scotland has never been oppressed by England unlike Ireland. Queen Elizabeth is a descendant of the Stuart kings of Scotland. But I fear, that a no deal Brexit will make Scotland a republic, which is a member of the EU and of the Eurozone. 
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #823 
Nothing you said actually changes what I wrote. Anyone with a bit of knowledge not gleaned from Wikipedia knows that Ulster's divisions are deeply sectarian on both sides, yet not entirely so. Ireland was a deeply and legally Catholic country from its inception until only a few decades ago, in a way Britain wasn't really a Protestant one. It's true that Republicanism is not a matter simply of religion in Ireland as a whole, but neither has being British been a matter of Protestantism. I'm somewhere between Anglicanisn and Orthodoxy, but I prefer Catholicism to the kind of Protestantism that's the hallmark of the Ulster Protestants. It doesn't make much difference to my Unionism. The bottom line is that it's just silly, not to mention ironic, to make out one side was significantly more sectarian than the other.

You have just outlined a number of worst possibilities, if not idol speculations: project fear at its worse. Still, I'd happily take the risk of them over no Brexit. I too hope Johnson's deal goes through; otherwise, bring on no deal!
azadi

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Reply with quote  #824 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wessexman
Nothing you said actually changes what I wrote. Anyone with a bit of knowledge not gleaned from Wikipedia knows that Ulster's divisions are deeply sectarian on both sides, yet not entirely so. Ireland was a deeply and legally Catholic country from its inception until only a few decades ago, in a way Britain wasn't really a Protestant one. It's true that Republicanism is not a matter simply of religion in Ireland as a whole, but neither has being British been a matter of Protestantism. I'm somewhere between Anglicanisn and Orthodoxy, but I prefer Catholicism to the kind of Protestantism that's the hallmark of the Ulster Protestants. It doesn't make much difference to my Unionism. The bottom line is that it's just silly, not to mention ironic, to make out one side was significantly more sectarian than the other.

You have just outlined a number of worst possibilities, if not idol speculations: project fear at its worse. Still, I'd happily take the risk of them over no Brexit. I too hope Johnson's deal goes through; otherwise, bring on no deal!

It's true, that sectarianism has been widespread on both sides in Ulster, but Irish nationalism isn't ideologically sectarian. Irish nationalism is about being Irishmen before being Catholics or Protestants. It's true, that Catholicism has been very influential in the Republic of Ireland, but the Republic of Ireland has always granted Protestants freedom of religion. Douglas Hyde, the first President of Ireland, was actually a Protestant. Ulster Unionism has always been ideologically sectarian. The Ulster Unionists opposed Irish home rule, because they feared, that home rule would lead to Rome rule. The DUP has always been strongly sectarian. Ian Paisley claimed, that Pope John Paul II was Antichrist in the European Parliament. But some Ulster Unionists, such as Terence O'Neill, has been opposed to sectarianism. Ian Paisley hated Catholics, while Gerry Adams didn't hate Protestants. That's why I prefer Sinn Fein to DUP. I'm neutral on Irish unification, but I consider religious sectarianism unacceptable.
I agree, that loosing your national sovereignty is worse than loosing parts of your territory. But Great Britain actually has a good deal as an EU member, because Great Britain has opt-outs from the Euro and the Schengen Agreement. I'm a German citizen. I would like Germany to leave the Eurozone, while staying a member of the EU, but it's sadly not possible to leave the Eurozone without leaving the EU. If Great Britain rejoins the EU after an economically disastrous no deal Brexit, Great Britain will be forced to join the Eurozone and the Schengen Agreement. But I strongly support Brexit with a deal, because Great Britain doesn't belong together with continental Europe. Charles de Gaulle was right. Great Britain is culturally far closer to the other countries of the Anglosphere than to continental Europe. Russia has close cultural links to Europe, but despite being a Russophile, I'm opposed to Russian membership of the EU. I'm also strongly opposed to Turkish membership of the EU. Great Britain is fully part of the European civilization unlike Russia and Turkey, but that doesn't mean, that Great Britain ought to be a member of the EU.
Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #825 
Speaker Bercow has scuppered Prime Minister Johnson's plans to have a second vote today on his Brexit deal.  It appears the only certain thing about Brexit is further uncertainty.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50128740

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-vote-boris-johnson-deal-meaningful-bercow-amendment-extension-a9165026.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1193401/brexit-news-boris-johnson-brexit-deal-speaker-john-bercow-uk-parliament-vote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/21/brexit-johnson-to-push-for-deal-as-labour-woos-rebel-tories-eu-extension-live-news

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