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bator

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Reply with quote  #766 
that would be fantastic. good luck to you all and God save the Queen
Queenslander

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Reply with quote  #767 
A brief pause is all that this debate needed to happen, as the method provides for the necessary cooling down of some pretty hot heads right now. It also gives them a time to thrash the heat of it all out during the conference season anyway.
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Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #768 
This is certainly a high-stakes, but clever, move from Johnson. Let's hope it is enough.

I am always amused by Europhile claims about unconstitutional actions, when they have literally created a system where parliament has almost become little more than a rubber-stamp for Brussels and the COREPER and European commission are legislatively much more important than parliament, at least in a de facto sense. There's also the fact that since the late eighties, the bureaucracy - often in cooperation with Brussels and making use of instruments granted by our EU membership, especially the general enabling act of the European Communities Act, has almost replaced the parliament and ministers as our legislative and executive. Ministers are today almost just front men for the Whitehall-Brussels bureaucracy, as Booker and North did a good job showing in their Mad Officials and Castle of Lies a couple of decades ago.


BaronVonServers

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Reply with quote  #769 

"Lets hope it works and we do get out."

Aye, that!

 

 


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Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #770 
Quote:
This is certainly a high-stakes, but clever, move from Johnson. Let's hope it is enough.


Apparently not!  Prime Minister Johnson has lost his parliamentary majority with the defection of veteran Tory lawmaker Phillip Lee to the Liberal Democrats.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/459728-boris-johnson-loses-parliamentary-majority

This was followed by the House of Commons voting to seize the agenda and the Brexit Process before it's suspension which was accomplished by voting 328 to 301 to do so, costing the Prime Minister his first legislative defeat, and a significant one at that.  Twenty one members of the Conservative Party voted with the opposition in this vote.  Among the Tories to vote against their party were former cabinet ministers and the grandson of Winston Churchill.  The Prime Minister has retaliated by expelling the 21 party rebels and calling for an early election.  He has labeled the vote as a tactic to overrule the referendum. He has called for general elections to be held on October 15th.  However, where the Prime Minister could once set the election on whatever date he or she chose, that is no longer true. The way British elections are called changed in 2011 when the Fixed Term Parliaments Act came into effect and that power shifted to Parliament. In order for an early election to happen, it has to be approved by a majority of two-thirds.  Considering the current climate in the chamber, Mr. Johnson is most probably not going to get his way on this.  In the meantime the House of Commons has now passed yet another bill blocking a No-Deal Brexit.  The bill gives the Government time either to reach a new agreement with the European Union at the European Council meeting next month or to seek Parliament's specific consent to leave the EU without a deal. If neither of those conditions are met by Oct. 19, the Prime Minister must ask the European Council to consent to another Brexit extension, setting the new date of January 31, 2020.  The bill now goes to the House of Lords.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/03/boris-johnson-suffers-commons-defeat-as-tories-turn-against-him

https://www.foxnews.com/world/winston-churchills-grandson-to-be-expelled-from-conservative-party-for-voting-against-boris-johnson

https://www.vox.com/world/2019/9/3/20847852/brexit-boris-johnson-parliament-delay

https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news/boris-johnson-brexit-wednesday-dle-gbr-intl/index.html

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/04/757587543/brexit-parliament-members-vote-to-block-johnsons-no-deal-exit

https://www.foxnews.com/world/brexit-talks-nearing-deadline


In short, it's a horrendous mess and Mr. Johnson finds himself in a similar spot to where Mrs. May was, with a deadlocked hostile house and split party, a frustrated European Union wondering when the British will get it together and an exasperated public.

Long Live the Queen.  Brexit however remains elusive.

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The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #771 
Things are certainly chaotic, but whether Johnson is done, in the long run, is open to question, although Mr. Slippery's 2011 bill is an annoyance.

The thing is, Brexit only has to happen once. Once we are out, we are out. It isn't easy to re-enter the EU, even for a country united in that aim. As long as the Tories hold their nerve and continue to back Brexit and not cooperate with the parliamentarians, there are still many opportunities here for Johnson and Brexit, even if you don't go as far as Blair and say this was all Johnson's plan to begin with.

Finally, oxymoronic Europhile Tories, or the worst of them, are likely going to purged from the party. I hope the disgraceful Bercow goes with those already mentioned. With the parliament on one side, and Farage on the other, the Tories seem to be being forced into a strongly Brexit position. They are also in primary place in the polls, so are well positioned for a general election. Of course, this is all high stakes still. A strong popular showing for remain, or one of opposition parties rising in the polls would be a problem. But, right now, I'm not panicking. But, certainly, it is a great pain that the PM can't bring about a general election, and, in fact, technically, there doesn't need to be one for almost three years.

Let's not forget, though, parliament is split. It is split between parties. The rebellious rump is likely split between options on Brexit. Some will want to overturn it completely, whereas others will baulk at so obvious a flouting of both the referendum and their manifestos. Then there is the albatross of Corbyn, who leads the largest opposition party, but is unpopular, even with a large section of his own party. I personally doubt parliament could continue for three years without a general election. In fact, if Johnson has the courage to not cooperate with the parliamentarians, their euphoria may wear off very quickly. Look at home Labour and the Lib Dems both abstained on the general election votes today. Usually, an opposition would welcome such a vote, especially in such chaotic circumstances. It doesn't point to remain confidence.

The Tories will have to do something about Farage and his party. It is probably still needed to keep the Tories' feet to the fire, but in our first past the post system, it could also end up helping remain MPs in some areas. A deal needs to be done.

Finally, there's the EU itself. They would need to approve an extension to article 50; otherwise, we leave at the end of October. However, I think they might prefer us just to leave at this point, at least behind the scenes. Yes, they will want to look they are punishing us, to warn other member states. But they long regarded Britain as the awkward partner, only partly accurately. And even that normal will be hard to return to, at least without a very strong popular victory for remain (like 55+% in a new referendum). How can we be anything but a thorn in their side after a thwarted Brexit? This feeling will be especially strong if there is no clear government or leadership to deal with the EU and ask for an extension. The EU may well just walj away and let us leave.
Peter

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Reply with quote  #772 
I don't think it's very likely the EU will refuse an extension, nice as that would be. We do after all pump a net £750 million per month into EU coffers (though no one ever seems able to explain why, or what we are supposed to get for it apart from an enormous trade deficit and a torrent of pointless and often damaging regulation) and that would be missed even if we wouldn't. In fact, I think a large part of their negotiating strategy has been based on the idea that if they make things awkward enough we will eventually give up altogether and just stay, aided of course by second, third, fourth and fifth columns otherwise known as the House of Commons, the House of Lords, the Civil Service and the judiciary. Seems to be working, too.

But maybe I'm wrong, seems impossible to accurately assess or predict anything at the moment. For example, I woke up this morning already knowing that the Block Brexit bill had passed the Commons first time around, and soon found out that an election had been refused. It wasn't until later though that I learned the Government had abandoned the attempt to filibuster the bill in the Lords, so it will certainly be returning to the Commons in time for the final vote, which will be a slam dunk, to happen before prorogation. Why have the Government conceded defeat so easily? I really don't think it is because they intend advising the Queen to withhold Assent, that would be like setting a nuke off under what tattered remnants of our constitution are still drifting around out there.

I suspect that their intention instead is to let the bill pass and then immediately introduce a new motion for an election, which it would be very, very hard for the opposition parties to refuse this time as they already said they would just love an election but only after the bill becomes law, please. The election happens before 19th October, the deadline in the bill by which an extension must be requested, so no need to do it in advance. And either the Conservatives win, with a strongly Leave slate of candidates, and immediately on returning to power enact legislation to cancel the blocking bill. Or they don't, in which case it is all someone else's problem.

Anyway, that's my speculation. Do I feel confident about it? Heck no. I'm not at all confident anyone properly understands what's going on at the moment, so there's no way I would.
Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #773 
Well this article shows just how confused this situation is.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1174293/brexit-news-boris-johnson-resignation-jeremy-corbyn-no-deal-eu-latest-news-update

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The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #774 
And this...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49594793

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The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #775 
I too have been troubled by hints of government weakness. Things are precarious, but, as noted above, ir seems to me there are real opportunities for the government and leave in general.

I wonder, for a start, why Johnson can't simply refuse to ask for an extension to article 50. It isn't as if there are legal penalties for refusing. The parliament would then be forced to either accept this or replace Johnson. If Johnson waits until after parliament returns to refuse, then there might not be time for parliament to get things moving,, even if they have a clear succession plan. But, of course, they don't. The remainers are very much divided, by party, ideology, and how they wish to proceed on Brexit. Will Ken Clarke and friends really put in Corbyn as PM? Will Labour vote for a compromise, non-Corbyn, non-Labour candidate?
BaronVonServers

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Reply with quote  #776 

Thank you Wessexman and Peter for your informative posts. and Ethiomonarchist for the links. 

 


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Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #777 
It seems that the craziness of recent British politics has worn down the E.U. as they finally agree to consider the Irish Backstop issue which had been considered a non-starter by them.  This might actually result in a Deal!

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1174809/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Northern-Ireland-backstop-Boris-Johnson-no-deal-latest-update


But still... the Prime Minister did not rule out the possibility of his resignation if he cannot secure either a Bexit Deal or an early election.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-resign-brexit-election-no-deal-commons-vote-a9094276.html

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The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Peter

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Reply with quote  #778 
The Express frequently makes stuff up. Or takes ridiculous slants on real but unexciting happenings to make them seem like news. It's usually best to just ignore it, and certainly in this case no one else seems to feel there's been any movement on the backstop irritation. In other (actual) news, the opposition parties have resiled from the undertaking to allow an election once the Block Brexit bill is law, and now say they will do so only once an extension has been applied for and granted.

Also, the various applications for judicial cancellation of the prorogation have now failed in the High Court as well as the Scottish Court of Session. Appeals are in progress for both cases, and a Northern Ireland one awaits a ruling. But, although this unwonted outburst of judicial good sense and responsible rulings (so far) is welcome, it's all a bit academic as what everyone knows was the purpose of the prorogation has been frustrated. As it increasingly seems Brexit itself might be, with this wretched excuse for a Parliament refusing to let itself be dissolved and as obstinately refusing to allow any kind of progress.
Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #779 
Quote:
The Express frequently makes stuff up. Or takes ridiculous slants on real but unexciting happenings to make them seem like news. It's usually best to just ignore it, and certainly in this case no one else seems to feel there's been any movement on the backstop irritation.


Duly noted.



Boris Johnson is learning about how Donald Trump's administration can be a two edged sword that cuts both ways.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7436699/Britain-not-line-post-Brexit-U-S-trade-deal-White-House-says.html

__________________
The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #780 
Just a piece of crazy speculation, but it did strike me that a second referendum might not be a terrible way out at this point. It does make a mockery of the first, and it is high stakes, but if won, it would be a rebuke to the remainers that would echo down the ages. There's no coming back from that. And leavers would be able to campaign on the sheer contempt parliament and the establishment have shown of the first vote. And, speculation over and back to normalcy.
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