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DavidV

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Reply with quote  #1 
As seasoned Iran and general current affairs watchers will know, the most significant political development within the Islamic Republic of Iran since the rigged 2009 election returned Ahmadinejad for another blood-soaked term in office has been the changes in the power structure of this vile regime, with an evident rift between Ahmadinejad and the hardline mullahs who put him there in the first place, thanks to the emergence of what is now called the "deviant current". It also reveals the fact that the factional struggles within the IRI is not merely between the "reformist" and "conservative" camps, or more broadly, moderates and hardliners, but even within those camps. Hence, the parliamentary elections that ensured that hardline Khamenei loyalists (namely "principalists" and "idealists") won a majority.

As I mentioned earlier this year, former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani gave a very revealing interview here: http://www.roozonline.com/english/news3/newsitem/archive/2012/april/06/article/i-wanted-to-directly-talk-with-the-us.html in which he mentioned that he always wanted to normalise relations with the US and the Arab world (and also said that he had written a secret letter to Khomeini in the latter's last years criticising his stance towards the US). The other thing that's quite revealing to me, is that he more or less implies that under his and Khatami's presidencies, the horrific excesses of the regime (which would serve to contradict the notion of Rafsanjani, Khatami et al being seen as moderates) were clearly out of their control. I don't see any reason to not believe Rafsanjani on both counts- that the efforts of him and Khatami over 16 years to improve relations with the rest of the world, and temper the excesses of the IRI, were clearly thwarted by hardliners whose network effectively controls the country.

This, for all opponents of the IRI, leads to more questions. The reformers and moderates still delusionally believe that the system is reformable, just as Gorbachev and Botha hoped their reforms would preserve the similarly evil regimes they presided over but had more radical consequences than intended. But most people know it can't be reformed, and has to be destroyed, but also that those within the system (the reformist/moderate politicians and clerics) are crucial to that. After all, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mousavi and Karroubi have all served the system in some capacity, and this would mean people have reason to believe they all had something to do with the regime's atrocities.

A good (if not perfect) analysis of some of the players in this circle of extremists is given here: http://iranbriefing.net/?p=13055 - firstly, Khamenei's son who's allegedly being groomed to take over (to the justifiable indignation of legitimate clerics), and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the most extreme of all ayatollahs and very likely a key player behind the series of gruesome chain murders of leftist, liberal and other opponents of the regime during the 80s and 90s. As we all know, this followed the mass executions of leftist prisoners in 1988- which was ordered by Khomeini, condemned by more reasonable ayatollahs, and (at that time) apparently kept from government figures including then PM Mousavi. This link also reveals one other significant fact: the treatment of clerics who oppose the regime like Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani. Oh the supreme irony, the IRI has committed more injustices against the clerics (whose authority it is supposedly based on) than any other in Iranian history.

Khamenei has no respect from senior clerics, who believe him to be illegitimate and an usurper. The regime has evolved from theocracy to an out-and-out fasicst (or fascistic) dictatorship. This has also meant a reliance on hardline clerics and paramilitaries to preserve this illegitimate regime.

Next, the uprising in Syria, ruled by one of the IRI regime's staunchest allies:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2012/06/media-watch-irans-alleged-role-in-syrian-massacre.html
Now, one may ask, did mercenaries play a role in mowing down protesters in 2009? Have Iran assisted Assad's mowing down of Syrian people?

While Ahmadinejad is set to quit politics when his term expires:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2012/06/news-ahmadinejad-ill-exit-politics-at-terms-end-us-senators-balk-at-talks.html
As any "election" will not be democratic, his successor will most likely be a hardline loyalist of the Supreme Leader. That's of course if the system doesn't fall down before then- and let's remember that one of the key factors in the survival of it has been attempting to balance the various factions, which has gone out the window.

Meanwhile, yet more atrocities, this time the execution of three members of Iran's Arab minority (unrest in that region has been happening for some time I believe): http://www.payvand.com/news/12/jun/1211.html

Where, you might ask, has Crown Prince Reza been amidst all this? Well, he's been very active in highlighting the situation, as these videos will show: http://www.rezapahlavi.org/videos.php?l=english#136
He has an adroit sense of timing, regarding his visit to The Hague and statements on his Facebook page. He has positioned himself, quite successfully, as a figurehead for the disparate resistance movements in exile and underground- movements which hardliners claim (not wholly inaccurately either, since most supporters of resistance are wisely quiet about their affiliation). Unity among oppositionists is key, as it was in opposing Communism in Europe all those years. The parallels can be drawn with any of those regimes- in Poland where Solidarity was mowed down but ultimately triumphed, in Romania where the regime was overthrown from within, et al.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #2 
Now this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9401491/Chickens-facing-censorship-in-Iran.html
Censoring the mention of chicken on TV because of rising cost of the food. Are they simply absurd, or getting desperate?

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2012/07/news-industry-and-trade-minister-western-sanctions-paralyzing-iran.html
Now blaming foreign powers for drought! The insanity of it all...
DavidV

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Posts: 5,100
Reply with quote  #3 
Update:
http://insidethemiddleeast.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/29/irans-chicken-crisis-sparks-protests/

Chicken is a central part of Persian cuisine. Soaring prices are setting off unrest as families struggle to put food on the table. Could this be the "Chicken Revolution"?



http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/irans-revolutionary-vanguard-reduced-to-criticising-chicken - the idiocy of republicanism and revolutionary ideology summed up nicely.
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