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jovan66102

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Reply with quote  #16 
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Originally Posted by ReinoTion
By now, they have the second largest navy in Asia.


True. But as I pointed out, the Chinese Navy is approximately eight times as large.

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head_statue

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Reply with quote  #17 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReinoTion
China won't go to war with Japan as long as the United States still has military bases in Yokosuka and Okinawa. However, both China and Japan are still strengthening their armed forces every years especially their navies and Japan cannot only rely on the United States when the times come. The Article 19 of the Japanese Constitution does not stop the Japanese from building a large naval fleet to defend themselves. By now, they have the second largest navy in Asia.


And as I said, your conventional forces (army and navy) are completely irrelevant when a country has thousands of stockpiled ballistic missles. China is never going to send naval ships or their airforce to approach the Japanese coast or airspace because that would enable Japan to retaliate when China can just keep all their military at home and press a few buttons instead.
KYMonarchist

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Reply with quote  #18 
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Originally Posted by head_statue
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReinoTion
China won't go to war with Japan as long as the United States still has military bases in Yokosuka and Okinawa. However, both China and Japan are still strengthening their armed forces every years especially their navies and Japan cannot only rely on the United States when the times come. The Article 19 of the Japanese Constitution does not stop the Japanese from building a large naval fleet to defend themselves. By now, they have the second largest navy in Asia.
And as I said, your conventional forces (army and navy) are completely irrelevant when a country has thousands of stockpiled ballistic missles. China is never going to send naval ships or their airforce to approach the Japanese coast or airspace because that would enable Japan to retaliate when China can just keep all their military at home and press a few buttons instead.


Of course, that would probably draw the USA in, and I don't think China would like that. Unfortunately, what you want to have happen and what actually does happen can be very different, with devastating consequences. Just ask the European royals circa 1914.
ReinoTion

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Reply with quote  #19 
For now, I see no chance of a war between China and Japan as the United States is still allied with Japan and moving most of its fleet to the Pacific. If the United States abandons its largest Pacific ally, Japan would be forced to scrap the Article 19 and reacquire a lot of weapons including nuclear missiles if it is to survive. However, the Chinese government should really stop teaching and telling its people to hate Japan.
head_statue

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Reply with quote  #20 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReinoTion
For now, I see no chance of a war between China and Japan as the United States is still allied with Japan and moving most of its fleet to the Pacific. If the United States abandons its largest Pacific ally, Japan would be forced to scrap the Article 19 and reacquire a lot of weapons including nuclear missiles if it is to survive. However, the Chinese government should really stop teaching and telling its people to hate Japan.


I seriously doubt that without the communist party that they will stop engaging in protests and rampages, in fact i think that if china doesn't have a strong central government alot of them would just lynch everyone in the Japanese embassy. You underestimate how angry people can get on their own.

This is about nationalism, people have killed each other for less than this such as football rivalries. There were the massive egypt algeria football riots in 2009, egypt even withdrew its ambassador over the match.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #21 
China will not get into a war for two simple reasons:
1) last time they did, against Vietnam, they suffered heavy losses (probably more than the US did in Vietnam and in much shorter time).
2) according to one claim, they don't want to risk pulling troops out of Tibet and the Muslim regions in the west of the country.

China is underoing leadership transition right now. And the new leadership will have to confront the challenge of an increasingly cynical and disillusioned populace, when you read the Internet there you find what they say about food safety, shoody infrastructure, and moral decay. CCP rule is not going to last indefinitely if it stays true to Chinese historical cycles.
ReinoTion

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Reply with quote  #22 
The CCP will continue to rule China as long as they keep the economy growing and prosperous which will also keep the Chinese populace happy with no reason to rise against their rulers. So, the CCP's rule over China will probably continue on for as long as other countries like the USA still buy their exports of cheap manufactured products and the government-controlled Chinese society remains stable. Any attempt to overthrow them will take a tremendous amount of military power and have to have the support of most of the Chinese populace. By the way, do Chinese nowadays still believe in the mandate of heaven?
head_statue

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Reply with quote  #23 
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidV
China will not get into a war for two simple reasons:1) last time they did, against Vietnam, they suffered heavy losses (probably more than the US did in Vietnam and in much shorter time).2) according to one claim, they don't want to risk pulling troops out of Tibet and the Muslim regions in the west of the country.

China is underoing leadership transition right now. And the new leadership will have to confront the challenge of an increasingly cynical and disillusioned populace, when you read the Internet there you find what they say about food safety, shoody infrastructure, and moral decay. CCP rule is not going to last indefinitely if it stays true to Chinese historical cycles.


Japan is not connected to China by any land bridge. The last time China engaged the Vietnamese navy at sea it expelled it from South Johnson Reef.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson_South_Reef_Skirmish
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Paracel_Islands

That said, the Vietnamese navy is made out of old Sovet crap equipment and Japan's navy is not.

Actually China does not have alot of soldiers in Tibet or xinjiang, it is shrinking its military size like russia and most other countries are doing, using large amount of soldiers in modern warfare is now a serious liability. Taiwan also cut its army in size by hundreds of thousands.

It stations paramilitary police and the normal amount of normal army units in tibet and xinjiang, the reason being is that there are no significant armed rebel groups with heavy weapons in the region. Its not like Chechnya during the wars there.

I believe most of the chinese military is concentrated in most of china proper, china does not have large troop carriers by either air or sea so it can't deploy soldiers overseas. if china for example goes to war with madagascar for some reason, it can't send any occupying army over, nor can they send their airforce, it will just have to blanket madagascar with ICBMs.
BaronVonServers

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Reply with quote  #24 
Correct.  You don't occupy a place via ICBM.  Those are for eliminating the current occupants, and not much else, other than as a threat.
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DavidV

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Reply with quote  #25 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReinoTion
The CCP will continue to rule China as long as they keep the economy growing and prosperous which will also keep the Chinese populace happy with no reason to rise against their rulers. So, the CCP's rule over China will probably continue on for as long as other countries like the USA still buy their exports of cheap manufactured products and the government-controlled Chinese society remains stable. Any attempt to overthrow them will take a tremendous amount of military power and have to have the support of most of the Chinese populace. By the way, do Chinese nowadays still believe in the mandate of heaven?


China's social and economic stability is actually endangered by its own population policies. The regime knows this full well. Not only an ageing population but also gender imbalance due to a preference for males.

We see outrage at appalling food safety, last year's train crash, the little girl being run over and passers by doing nothing, and most recently, outrage over forced abortion.

Here's a song called "Brother Strong Stomach" about food safety:
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