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DavidV

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Reply with quote  #1 
While Donald Trump has virtually assured himself of the Republican nomination, Hillary Clinton still has to dunk it out with Bernie Sanders despite the advantage of the party machinery behind her. We have also seen, across the pond, the Labour and Conservative parties face internal feuds ahead of the EU referendum as well as Labour's latest controversy. The fact that Jeremy Corbyn is Labour leader, while Bernie Sanders is a viable presidential candidate.

Most analyses of the Trump and Sanders phenomena come to the conclusion that it is an anti-Establishment vote and, more deeply, a backlash against neoliberal and globalist policies. Whereas Pat Buchanan argues that they represent historic currents dating back to the 19th Century, Gerald Warner argues that US political trends are now more closely aligned with Europe and that Trump and Sanders are simply American(ised) versions of European currents.

I put it down to the fact that there are at least three distinct voter demographics in the UK, USA and Australia among others:

1) a working age and mostly “Anglo” demographic (but also including established migrants) who feel that their freedom, prosperity and security is eroded by the Left, multiculturalism and Political Correctness. This is where Trump and UKIP score big.

2) a mostly Anglo student age middle-class demographic who hate their own people, culture and history because they are the product of an education system that has whitewashed socialism and led them to embrace a utopian worldview. This has led to the rise of Sanders and Corbyn.

3) an ethnic minority demographic who feel they are victims of “racism”, “imperialism” and “oppression” and have their sense of victimhood and entitlement cultivated by demographic no. 2. This has long been the province of Democrats, Labour and Greens.

The alliance of 2) and 3) becomes more incoherent with the Left’s flirtation with Islamists while claiming to champion women and gays. If the Jewish community has woken up to the fact that the Left has turned against them, when will women and gays do the same?

We have seen the sort of frightening intolerance the Left are capable of with their bid to disrupt Trump rallies and harass politicians in the UK and Australia. These people do not bolster their own cause but quite the opposite, as the votes for Trump and UKIP respectively demonstrate.
Windemere

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Reply with quote  #2 
Thanks for that interesting analysis and comparison of the voter demographics in Australia, Europe, and the U.S.A.

Looking at these demographics from an American perspective, I think your assessment of Group # 1 is mostly accurate. These mostly middle-aged white working & middleclass people do feel that their former prosperity has been eroded. A good many of them lost their jobs in the 2003-2010 Recession, and their replacement jobs are at a lower income. They've had to down-size their expectations and reduce their standard of living. Even if they've managed to maintain their standard of living, they have friends and relatives who've lost out, and the feeling is "There, but for the grace of God, go I".  Many of them moved to the suburbs years ago, but they  resent having to pay for social programs & welfare for the unemployed urban poor, and they blame multiculturalism (and immigration) for this situation. Those who couldn't afford to move to the suburbs have seen their once homogeneous urban  neighborhoods, where they felt safe and comfortable, transform into multicultural zones, with increasing poverty, crime, and violence. They've lost their previous sense of community and belonging.  They have grown frustrated with conventional politics,  and they appreciate the fact that Trump is a political outsider. They also appreciate his earthy, sometimes vulgar & racist, non-politically correct, rhetoric. I think, though, that they blame not only the Left, but the entire conventional political Establishment, for their predicament. And thus comes their support for Trump.

Group # 2 is known in the U.S.A. as the "Millenials". They are in their late teens to mid-twenties, and they came of age during the Recession. Most of them grew up in middleclass families, and attended college, whether it be 2 year community colleges, or 4 year universities. But a good many of them are employed at working-class jobs as servers, food-service, warehouse or factory workers, security-guards, cashiers or stock-clerks,etc. They are barely earning a living, and are in deeply in debt because of college. The  middleclass managerial/professional  jobs that they once aspired to have disappeared. Like their Group #1 parents, they are disillusioned, frustrated, and distrustful of the traditional political Establishment. Sander's socialist message of a substantially higher minimum-wage, government-sponsored health care similar to that in Canada & Europe, free education, publically financed elections free of large donations from special interests,  etc. resonates with them. Rather than expecting utopia, from what I can see, they actually have quite limited realistic and practical expectations.

Group #3, the ethnic & racial minorities, have been an increasing demographic for many years, and will eventually form the majority. I think that their feelings of racism and oppression date back to the very earliest days of nationhood, even back to the days of slavery. But it was the Civil Rights Protests of the 1960s & 70s that turned them  into an organized political movement. Many of these people have since moved into the middleclass, but their political support is still tied to the traditional Democratic Party, which supported the original Civil Rights protests. I think that this demographic is supporting Clinton, probably not so much out of enthusiasm for her, but because they see her as the best alternative. And those who haven't moved into the middleclass, from what I can see, appear to be so alienated that they do not take part in national elections at all, although they do sometimes take part in local municipal elections, and can be a significant force there.

I don't see any special alliance between any of these groups. Actually, the country appears to be very, very divided, frustrated, and angry with the present state of affairs. What I found most significant about the Presidential primaries was how quickly the conventional Republican candidates who were expected to be nominated( including Jeb Bush) were eliminated in favor of the outsiders ( i.e. Trump, who never  held any previous political office, and Tea-Party Republican Cruz, from the very fringes of his own party).  And how the conventional Democratic candidate (Clinton), once considered a shoo-in, with only token opposition from an aging socialist from out in the boondocks whom no one had previously ever heard of, has had to struggle just to maintain her lead. The voters have certainly sent a loud & clear message of discontent and anger to the powers that be, and we can only wait and see what will  happen in November.


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DutchMonarchist

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Reply with quote  #3 
Not sure if this is the best thread to post it, but we've had our Trump discussions spread over so many that it's hard to pick the best one.

It seems the Trump demographic was big enough to make him win!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/donald-trump-set-for-us-election-victory-in-americas-brexit/

Some here, including myself, will be quite disappointed with this while others will be happy with it. I guess the best thing to hope for is that Trump will succeed is pursuing some of the policies that I liked, like restraining migration, and not succeed in pursuing some of the worst ideas that he had concerning foreign policy (in my opinion). I hope he won't completely drop American allies in the middle east in favor of Russia.


DavidV

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Reply with quote  #4 
He won't. Like Tsipras in Greece he will be more pragmatic, and I think he will be far more dependent on the team advising him.
Peter

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Reply with quote  #5 
I won't attempt to disguise that I was dismayed by the result, surely one of the biggest electoral shocks of all time. I can only hope that an actual Trump presidency turns out far more positive for America and the world than a potential Trump presidency ever looked, and that you are right about the pragmatism. I too hope that Trump won't discard existing American allies in the Middle East and indeed elsewhere, but a more constructive relationship with Russia is in my view one good thing that Trump's election makes possible. Additionally, while detesting almost everything I know about the man, which by now seems to be quite a lot, his sceptical attitude towards anthropogenic climate change will itself be a welcome change. I'm clutching at straws here, hoping we all stay afloat. I was actually looking at the calendar this morning, making sure it wasn't April 1st!
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #6 
My disdain for those ruling Russia and Turkey is trumped (no pun intended) by my hatred for the mullahs ruling Iran, to say nothing of ISIS. Deal with the latter two first, and the rest later. At least we can find a way to enable a genuine counterrevolution.
Peter

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Reply with quote  #7 
Statistician and humorist (no, these are not mutually contradictory propositions, despite what you might think) Andy Zaltzman has a cricketing slant on the Trump win. His straws are even slenderer than my straws, but also funnier.
Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #8 
Well I hate to disappoint you David, but while Trump may be against the nuclear deal with Iran;  
a) since that is a U.N. deal, not a U.S. one, he wont really be able to affect much there, and;
b) his more isolationist policy is not going to contain Iran, whose tactical alliance with Russia in Syria will only strengthen now

As you probably saw on my Facebook post this morning, while I am dismayed, I am not going to join in with the mass hysteria.  We haven't elected Pol Pot or Idi Amin.  I would have been far more comfortable with an establishment Republican, say a President-Elect Jeb Bush, or Mit Romney, not the unpredictable Mr. Trump, but he is the man constitutionally elected.  We're stuck with him.

I think he heralds a return to protectionism and international isolationism, with American withdrawal from it's role of international policeman that it's held since the World Wars.  Instead of one or two great superpowers, there will be multiple new "Great Powers" exerting regional power and alliances exerting global power, much like before World War I, just without all the monarchies.  China, Russia, India, Germany, Japan, Turkey (terrifyingly possible are Pakistan and Iran as nuclear powers as well) as ascendant world powers, while the United States and Britain lower their profile and turn inward, and the E.U. disintegrates.  I wouldn't want to be Ukraine, a Baltic state, or a Kurd or Arab in this world, or an Israeli.  States around the globe will scramble to find new patron powers.  Let's hope it wont all lead to a repeat of 1914 on a far more global scale.

Other than that, President-Elect Trump did complain about the fact that the White House lacks a proper ball room for state events, and that state banquets being held in ornate tents is an embarrassment that he intends on fixing by building a "YUGE" ballroom that will be "fantastic".  Dripping in golden fixtures like his over the top penthouse no doubt.  Looking forward to seeing that!

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The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
DutchMonarchist

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Reply with quote  #9 
That's quite an analysis Ethiomonarchist. I don't think the election of one politician will change the politics of the whole world that much, and this is also the man who said that he would bomb IS to death, so I'm not even sure about how much isolationism there will be. I have a vague perspective on what Trump is going to try to do within the US, but what his foreign policy will be is so hard to guess at this point.
Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #10 
No I think he's more of a symptom of what we see happening across the Western world.  Britain turning inward with Brexit is another sign and the backlash from those who just can't accept it.  The centrifugal forces that threaten to tear up the E.U., the greater desire by Flanders, Catalonia and Scotland for independence, the stark geographic and class divisions that are illustrated by the electoral map in the U.S.

His election is not causing global change, but rather global changes caused his election.

__________________
The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #11 
And then this happened among the lovely Salafist crowd...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/us-election-latest-donald-trump-win-celebrated-jihadi-movements-syria-al-qaeda-a7408266.html


And this from a distraught conservative writer...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-big-win-masks-deep-divide-in-the-republican-party-143448864.html

__________________
The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #12 

Trump seems to have no consistent foreign policy, just as he seems to have little consistent policy in any area. But to me he sometimes seems to sound like the foreign policy realist that America desperately needs (the isolationist tag is hawkish propaganda). In the last sixteen years America has been let down by two extremes of foreign policy - foolhardy neocon interventionism and Obama's leading from the behind abandonment of much national interest and strength. America now needs to start acting in its own national interest. That means projecting its strength, but not meddling in every little patch of the earth. And, yes, sometimes it means not extending itself for the sake of allies that give little back to America in return. 

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/08/what-would-a-realist-world-have-looked-like-iraq-syria-iran-obama-bush-clinton/ 

I think I prefer that he won, but only just. It is not a talking point that Hillary deserved to be indicted on several fronts (mishandling classified documents, destruction of evidence, perjury, and perhaps corruption): 

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2016-10-24-0100/hillary-clinton-fbi-obama-administration

Hopefully, without political pressure from Obama and Lynch, the FBI field offices investigating the Clinton Foundation can be allowed to get on with their work. I doubt anything can be done for the badly mishandled investigation into her server, though.

Sullivan is about as conservative as David Cameron, it must be said. Some conservatives are somewhat less upset over the result. 

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/what-hath-trump-wrought/
http://www.theimaginativeconservative.org/2016/11/yes-america-first-notes-end-beginning-age-john-willson.html

Still, I can't help but feel that a Russell Kirk or William F. Buckley would (though probably preferring Trump to Clinton in the end) not be ectastic at this result. Trump is still a demagogue, a liar, and a buffoon (though his opponent was the first two), but at least he will probably not deliver the absurdly politicised supreme court to liberal ideologues (in the last debate Clinton talked frankly about her basically political understanding of the role of the supreme court - most Democratic candidates at least pretend they just want judges to enforce the law) But one can't help but feel a little bit of schadenfreude for left-liberals in America and around the world today:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/trumpophobia-melts-sjw-snowflakes/
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/441896/donald-trump-2016-democrats-crying-nazi-bemoan-their-spent-credibility

Quote:

The Republican nominee for president is a racist, sexist threat to American democracy — and this time, we really mean it. In a nutshell, this is the Democratic argument against Donald Trump.



 

DavidV

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Reply with quote  #13 
No really, Clinton was a dangerous choice because her extremist left-liberalism would endanger freedom of speech and rule of law in the USA. I'm not kidding. Melanie Phillips called it out in a recent column of hers:
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/As-I-See-It-Americas-nightmare-choice-470079

Perhaps Britain and the Commonwealth can reassert itself in world affairs, as Britain was once the world's greatest power, the "mother" of most English-speaking nations including the USA, and her dominance of the world was good for humanity. It is only Leftists, Islamists and Irish Republicans who would disagree.

And what about restoring monarchies in Europe and elsewhere, which is the main work of this forum? Trump may let that happen if we can organise it ourselves.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #14 
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/jennifer-oriel/us-election-the-deplorables-united-will-never-be-defeated/news-story/8001e087713aa6ba223ccd9e3217d122

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jennifer Oriel
America’s silent majority delivered a resounding victory for the “deplorables” by electing Donald Trump president. Yet Trump supporters have been vilified and physically assaulted following the election result. Left mobs have threatened to assassinate the president-elect and called for the death of “white people”.

Trump’s base has been subjected to the most vile bigotry by those feigning moral virtue from the press pulpit and the PC establishment. They took the abuse, went to the ballot box and exercised their democratic right to vote for the candidate of their choosing. Respect it.

In the aftermath, many members of the press have conceded graciously that they got it wrong by predicting Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide. But others continue to demean Trump voters using the accusatory rhetoric favoured by PC bigots on the losing end of an argument: racism, sexism, xenophobia, Islamophobia etc. Others maintain that only uneducated white men voted for Trump and employ Marxist false consciousness theory to depict his supporters as ignorant. They are wrong.

More than 60 million Americans voted for Trump. Exit polling is an inexact science, but preliminary data reveals some surprising results that contradict the popular narrative that only uneducated white men voted for Trump. Among male voters, 53 per cent chose Trump while 54 per cent of female voters selected Clinton. But one of the surprise findings is that among female voters, 42 per cent chose Trump despite his much publicised comments and the Clinton team’s relentless use of gender politics to solicit the female vote.

Exit poll data reported by CNN shows another surprising result: among respondents with a college degree, 43 per cent voted for Trump and 37 per cent of those with postgraduate qualifications selected him. Among college educated white women, 45 per cent chose Trump. In addition, almost a third (29 per cent) of Hispanic voters backed Trump, although the numbers may change after the final count. It was presumed that due to his proposal to deport illegal immigrants back to South America and fortify the border, the Hispanic/Latino community would reject him. Writing for NBC news, Suzanne Gamboa highlighted the role of Christianity in swinging the Latino vote to Trump. His approach to abortion, school choice and the Supreme Court appealed to the devout Hispanic/Latino community.

The popular thesis that only uneducated white men voted for him appears discredited, but there was little recognition of the diversity in Trump’s support base. On the day of the election, the ABC featured triumphalist rhetoric about Clinton becoming the first female president before the booths had even closed. When asked about whether white men might get Trump over the line, Time correspondent Jay Newton-Small said there weren’t enough of them.

In the afternoon, Labor MP Linda Burney gave a perfect example of why a Trump-like figure could emerge here. She stated that people seeking to restore free speech by reforming 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act were just “middle-aged white men” who didn’t understand racism.

The Left is trying to link Trump’s victory to increased racism. For example, The New York Times printed a series of tweets from bureau chief Fernanda Santos who was upset because “a white older man” allegedly asked her to speak English on the phone. Underneath the tweets, culture writer Anna Silman wrote: “Santos’s experience is just one of many incidents of racially motivated violence and hate speech people have chronicled in the days since Trump’s election.”

A Muslim student has been charged for claiming falsely that white male Trump supporters tore off her hijab. It was reported across the Left press as proof that Trump’s presidency was dangerous. How many supposed victims of racism by Trump’s supporters might be lying?

In truth, the post-election violence has been Left on Right. It took Trump’s victory to unmask the true character of the PC Left. What began with scenes of Clinton’s collective strewn across floors in the foetal position turned into violent rage organised in protests against democracy. Socialists, Islamists, anarchists and black supremacists have mobbed US cities with some threatening to murder people who dissent from the PC line. Fox News reported that in New Orleans, anti-Trump activists defaced a memorial with race hate speech “F..k White People” and “Die Whites Die”. That is incitement to genocide. On Twitter, Left mobs are calling for people to kill Trump at his inauguration.

For the entire election campaign, Clinton backers portrayed themselves as the peaceful, civilised face of modern democracy while vilifying Trump supporters as uneducated, low IQ white men with no future in the brave new world. The Left lost the US election because millions of Americans were smart enough to see through their spin. Those smart Americans include the white working class, people educated by life experience and in universities, Hispanic Americans and women.

The people’s decision to vote for Trump reveals the resiliency of that most vital democratic principle: self-determination. I have denounced his sexism and derogatory comments about Mexicans. Yet I predicted Trump would win the election well before the event because he is a counter-revolution whose time has come. The Western world is entering a political era led by a grassroots movement to restore sovereignty and defend liberal democracy against its enemies. In the exit polls, immigration, jobs and terrorism emerged as chief concerns. Like Brexiteers, Americans want their government to protect the sovereign wealth of their nation and the sovereign interests of citizens. It is a reasonable expectation. The complexity, of course, is in the delivery.

The people who voted for Trump have been called “the forgotten people”. But they are less the forgotten people than a people reviled. When the news of Trump’s victory finally arrived, I thanked God not because I like Trump, but for a people reviled who rose up to be counted. It’s time to update an old chant: the deplorables united will never be defeated.

Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #15 
Trump's inexperience seems to be leading him astray:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/bolton-and-trumps-foreign-policy-judgment/
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trump-and-the-neoconservatives/

The last thing America needs is the likes of John Bolton in an important national security role. Trump would do better appointing Obama as security of state.

Oh, for some realists! Kissinger for security of state 2017?

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