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DavidV

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Reply with quote  #31 
Trump has done it and the Iran deal is off:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/05/08/trump-vows-to-withdraw-from-iran-nuclear-agreement-calls-pact-defective-at-its-core.html
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/05/08/trump-vows-to-withdraw-from-iran-nuclear-agreement-calls-pact-defective-at-its-core.html

Saudi Arabia supports Trump's decision:

https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/1262036/saudi-arabia-welcomes-trump%E2%80%99s-decision-pull-out-iran-deal
Peter

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Reply with quote  #32 
Such a very bad decision. Naturally Iran's regional rivals will support it, but hardly anyone else is going to. And in the event that North Korea was remotely serious about negotiating over its own nuclear weapons programme it won't be now, having seen the abrogration of a solemn treaty on entirely spurious grounds by the very person it would have been negotiating with.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #33 
What other options are there? Allowing the Iranian regime access to money only enables it to support groups like Hezbollah, beloved of Jeremy Corbyn, as well as the means to continue murderous repression of its own populace.

Suffocating the regime financially, coupled with robust and determined internal resistance, spells the end of the regime in the long term. After the events that began at the end of last year, there is no turning back. Iranians have long been afraid to express opposition in public, for fear of the consequences to themselves, their families and friends. The regime has also pursued opponents abroad in the past, carrying out assassinations in France, Germany and Austria. European governments have been shamefully complacent or even acquiescent.

We should celebrate anything that cripples a wretched and unpleasant regime, in the knowledge that almost any replacement will be an infinite improvement for the common people of Iran. As monarchists, it is our imperative to make the case.
Peter

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Reply with quote  #34 
If this decision were to lead to the fall of the current Iranian regime that would almost inevitably be an improvement. And I suppose if anyone doesn't know already that Trump is treacherous, untrustworthy and tells an awful lot of lies then they just haven't been paying attention. In that sense, the abrogation could be seen as aiming at a good result with the only downside being damage to a reputation that is already beyond repair. Trouble is, it won't get that result; likeliest outcome is the more repressive elements in Iran will seize control, put down the present unrest with as much brutality as is needed and otherwise carry on with business as usual.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #35 
It's clear now that there is widespread opposition to the regime underground and abroad, but one that is now very much visible, organised and determined. I know what I see on social media. We know there will never be a better opportunity than this. And above all else, the destruction of the regime will be an enormous moral victory over enemies of the West.
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #36 
I agree, Peter, a terrible decision, and it just goes to show Trump has been suborned by neoconservatives, like the reprehensible Bolton.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/mr-president-dont-trash-the-iran-nuclear-deal/

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/the-stupidity-of-reneging-on-the-nuclear-deal/

I agree that the likes of Bolton likely have war with Iran on the horizon. A change of regime in Iran would likely be a good thing (though the same might once have been said about removing Asad), but what will the cost be?
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #37 
Any regime change in Iran would be an improvement for its people and the region. It would remove the support for proxy group and a centre of anti-Western propaganda.

Compare the support for Solidarity in Poland in the 1980s - virtually every Western national leader except Pierre Trudeau backed them - to what we see now where Trump is alone among Western leaders whereas May, Trudeau, Merkel and Macron are all indifferent. Utter moral cowardice on their part. In fact, we can talk about the fact that there was huge global pressure on Apartheid South Africa in the 1980s backed by liberal elites and celebrities, and virtually none to rid the world of the equally if not more reprehensible Islamist cancer in our midst.

Most of us want to see change and want to see a return of the monarchy. If you don't, you're nothing short of a moral coward.
Ethiomonarchist

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Reply with quote  #38 
Since the majority of Iran's trade is with Europe and not the United States (Germany and France in particular), and since those European countries have denounced America's withdrawal from the agreement the Treaty as a whole is not off, only the U.S. government has withdrawn.  U.S. sanctions will not have that big an effect on Iran, but if the U.S. tries to punish other countries for trading with Iran as the President has threatened, it will seriously sour relations with America's closest allies.  There are those however who believe that the U.S. withdrawal spells doom for the treaty.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/europe-will-try-keep-iran-deal-alive-cant-152504350.html


As Peter points out this also has serious effects on the negotiations with North Korea, whose leaders will take American commitments to Treaties less seriously, and will probably be less likely to adhere to any agreement themselves.

Saudi Arabia has applauded the withdrawal of the United States, Syria is denouncing it.  Other powers such as Israel and Russia are lining up behind their interests and allies.  This action has not noticeable weakened Iran's regime, although the fall of the mullahs would be welcome.  It has perhaps consolidated the lines of confrontation in the region.

This does line up with the hawkish neocons who want to remove Iran's Islamic regime.  I am not confident that they intend on restoring the monarchy and have little trust that they will do that.  Neocons like Bolton have been the most aggressive about promoting American style republican democracy, blocking the restorations of monarchies in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Although I don't think President Trump shares their anti-monarchism, as long as people like Bolton have his ear I am pessimistic about the chances of a monarchical restoration in Iran.

Let's wait and see how this all turns out.

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The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #39 
For Poland we can substitute Iraq, Egypt, Libya, and Syria, where regime change, or the attempt, made things worse. I think everyone here would love to see the Iranian regime toppled, and the monarchy return. One question is, though, is that a likely outcome of regime change. Iran is different to the Arab states mentioned, and might have a much easier time transitioning to a stable, relatively free (hopefully monarchical) government. I think the protesters certainly deserve moral support at this stage, though whether Trump's action helps or hinders them is hard to say. The other question is whether regime change is going to need excessive Western meddling and even neoconservative warmongering. That is not worth the cost. Iran is a middle-level, regional power, and it is not in the national interest of Britain or the US to get overly involved in its internal or regional affairs. I for one hope May refuses support to Trump and the dangerous Bolton if that is their intention.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #40 

The Islamic Republic regime in Iran will fail like all other utopian/millenarian/messianic projects - the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany two of them, and the European Union will as well.

DavidV

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Reply with quote  #41 
Melanie Phillips has always told the truth about Islamists. They deserve no concessions, and their danger lies not in terrorism but in their subversive activities directed against Western Civilisation.

https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/AS-I-SEE-IT-The-elephant-in-the-room-is-regime-change-556138
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #42 
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2018/05/246009/morocco-iran-algeria-becomes-hezbollah-backdoor-to-north-africa/

Western Sahara has long been a proxy issue for Algeria and numerous Third World states. The Iranian regime's apparent support of Polisario is certainly consistent with its historical patterns.
 
Algeria's evidently good relations with the Iranian regime can be explained by this. Whereas countries like Oman maintain close pragmatic ties with Tehran, Algeria's reasons are more historical and ideological. Both Iran and Algeria see themselves as "revolutionary" and "anti-imperialist" states and support causes in the international arena consistent with this. It also means, of course, an apparent lack of ideological consistency in who they support - PFLP, IRA, Polisario, Hamas and Hezbollah would seem like an eclectic mix, but all consistent with this demented worldview.
 
Yet Algeria has pragmatic relations with the West and has something of a limited democracy (foreign observers deemed parliamentary elections free and fair), and also fought against a brutal Islamist insurgency for a decade.
 
A country basing itself on "anti-Western" ideas will invariably have problems establishing democracy, freedom, human rights and rule of law. Heed that lesson.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #43 
Regime change in Iran would deal a blow to Islamist projects everywhere:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2018/05/15/Collapse-of-mullahs-state-to-bring-down-political-Islamization-.html
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #44 
Protests continue unabated:
https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/us-slaps-new-sanctions-on-hezbollah-as-protests-return-to-iran-s-kazeroun-1.731551
https://humanrightsiniran.com/1397/53657/







DavidV

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Reply with quote  #45 
Hackers in Iran get creative:
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/999960653048803328

The #IranRegimeChange trend on social media:
https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=%23IranRegimeChange&src=tyah

Most countries in the Middle Eastr recognise what's at stake:
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1308936
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1309651
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