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Ethiomonarchist

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It seems that the European Union is increasingly fraying along it's edges since the Brexit vote.  Now however, the prospect of the pro-EU government of Mario Renzi loosing the upcoming referendum, and the upcoming Presidential election in France, some are predicting the begining of the end for the European Union.

http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/737890/Euro-DIVES-amid-fears-Italy-s-referendum-is-beginning-of-the-END-of-EU

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/737713/france-election-end-EU-germaine-greer-ITV

Turkey is increasingly showing contempt for the EU. Edrogan has said he will listen to the Turkish people rather than people named "Hans" and "George" when it comes to extending Turkey's state of emergency or re-instating the death penalty.  The European Parliament is on the verge of suspending talks to admit Turkey to the Union, a move that Pope Benedict XVI had warned against.

http://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-erdogan-escalates-war-of-words-with-european-union/a-36536107

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/23/world/europe/turkey-eu-membership-talks.html?_r=0

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The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
DutchMonarchist

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While it was clear were my sympathies were in the Brexit discussion, I refrained from making any predictions there because I genuinely didn't know where things would go. I will, however, make the prediction that the EU as a whole will not collapse. 

So what if Renzi loses the referendum? There may be new parliamentary elections, but these are extremelly unlikely to lead to an all out victory for the Five Stars Movement. It may lead to a fractured political state, but hey, this is Italy we are talking about. An if I'm correct even the Five Stars Movement doesn't want to leave the EU, but just wants a referendum on the Euro.

A victory for the Front National would be a far more serious threat to the EU. But I don't see that happening due to the political system in France. This is not a two-party system like the US where an anti-establishment candidate managed to take control of one of the mainstream parties like Trump has done. It's a new party competing against two old ones, and since Francois Hollande is so unpoplar Marine le Pen will probably end up against Fillon. A part of the French left will then vote for Fillon along side with a part of the traditional right. Liberal voters may hold their nose while doing so, but in the end they will prefer anything over the Front National. I don't know how close Le Pen will come, but I feel confident to predict that she won't win in 2017.
Wessexman

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EU instability is good for Britain, it seems to me. It makes the Brexit stronger.
Ethiomonarchist

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Dutchmonarchist, I think you are looking at the Italian referendum with too little concern if you are indeed an EU supporter.  If the government loses the referendum, as the article I posted said, several significant Italian financial institutions may very well collapse, causing system wide tumult in the Eurozone.  It will be the Greek crisis on a whole new scale, and I don't know if already leary electorates can hold on to the idea of a unified European Union under those circumstances.  If a sceptic government emerges in France, and Italy shakes the Eurozone, then the continued existence of the Union is seriously in danger.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/737986/Brexit-Euro-collapse-Italy-referendum-investor-prediction

Wessexman, while you may have a point that Eurozone instability would be good for Brexit, it doesn't look as if Brexit itself is particularly stable...

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/737946/Brexit-Legal-expert-predicts-Supreme-Court-case-rule-against-Government

__________________
The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Wessexman

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There will be a Brexit. MPs will not dare to vote it down completely. The question is whether it will be a real or a fudged Brexit (like the so called soft Brexit).
DutchMonarchist

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Let's not forget that some people also predicted economic collapse if Britain would vote for Brexit. While there was a little bit of that, all in all the consequences have been rather modest so far. Who says the Italian referendum has to be any different? I think it may just result in some turmoil on the financial markets, but we will see.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #7 
Italy is in desperate need of salvation and only the collapse of the Euro and the EU will bring that. It's happening before our eyes, we've seen systems like this collapse before and we'll see it again.
Ethiomonarchist

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Let's not forget that some people also predicted economic collapse if Britain would vote for Brexit. While there was a little bit of that, all in all the consequences have been rather modest so far. Who says the Italian referendum has to be any different? 


The financial soundness of Great Britain and Italy are about "as distant as sky and earth" as my Ethiopian countrymen would say.  Italy has been teetering on the edge for years, Britain may not be what it was, but it's much more stable politically and financially on it's worst day than Italy is on it's best.  No comparison.

There is a lot of hand wringing and alarmist panic in the press I agree, but I don't think it's unfounded over Italy.  Britain is holding up ok for now, but Brexit hasn't officially begun yet, and when the terms are set will be the true test.  Will there be an exodus to the continent of manufacturers and financial services to ensure their continued access to the common market?  We will see.  We will see if there is even a surviving common market large enough and strong enough to justify moving if things take a turn for the EU.

__________________
The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #9 
Oh it's Angela Merkel again:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/738629/Angela-Merkel-British-expat-rights-Theresa-May-open-door-migrant-crisis

Crap like this makes me wish Germany could be broken up into its constituent states as was touted by some in 1918 and 1945. Such pigheaded attitudes towards Britain make me sick.
Ethiomonarchist

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Some mixed E.U. news.  While E.U. enthusiasts were overjoyed at the defeat of the far-right in Austrian presidential elections, they were dealt a very severe setback with the defeat of the Italian government in it's quest to change the constitution by referendum, resulting in Prime Minister Renzi's resignation.  The Austrian vote has fallen into the shadows after the Italian referendum results.  All their jubilation over the Austrian vote was silenced by Italy, and the future of the Union is even more in question.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/05/europe/italy-austria-europe-votes-nic-robertson/index.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/italian-referendum-renzi-resign-brexit-eu-disintegration-a7456131.html

http://www.afr.com/news/world/europe/european-union-suffers-a-second-does-of-referendum-panic-after-italys-matteo-renzi-loses-20161205-gt40ap

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-future-of-the-european-union-could-essentially-be-decided-in-2017-2016-12-05

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-italys-leader-exits-a-door-opens-for-anti-elite-populists/2016/12/05/9eb4a5d6-ba83-11e6-ae79-bec72d34f8c9_story.html?utm_term=.44260daa4a9c

__________________
The Lion of Judah hath prevailed.

Ethiopia stretches her hands unto God (Quote from Psalm 68 which served as the Imperial Motto of the Ethiopian Empire)

"God and history shall remember your judgment." (Quote from Emperor Haile Selassie I's speech to the League of Nations to plead for assistance against the Italian Invasion, 1936.)
Wessexman

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Reply with quote  #11 
It is important to remember there isn't really a Common Market anymore, there is what is known as the Single Market. This is important, because the latter is as much a regulatory and economic planning zone as a free trade or customs union.

I found the Austrian vote interesting. The Freedom Party is called far-right by the likes of the BBC and the usual suspects, but they call anyone to the left of David Cameron far-right if they can get away with it, so it is hard to know how to judge such a party. I seem to recall that the Freedom Party actually has some unsavoury and far-right tendencies - more BNP than UKIP, you might say - but I'm not sure. If so, it is still interesting they could get 46% of the vote in Austria.
DavidV

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Reply with quote  #12 
It's EU and UN universalism which has helped fuel the flames of extremism. Progressive internationalism has provided the fertile ground in which all extremism - Far Left, Far Right and Islamist - can flourish.
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