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Posts: 4,470
Reply with quote  #586 
Yes only in 1993-96 and 2009-12 did the opposition take power in an election, and disappointed when they did. The main point is that the agenda of the LDP's hard Right and the Nippon Kaigi group is closer to being implemented, namely revision of the constitution. It would seem that in Britain, with Labour in disarray, a similar party pattern could be developing. The opposition parties cooperated in this election, but the strategy of the DP cooperating with the Left parties (or specifically the JCP) was derided by the more right-wing members of the party.

Posts: 831
Reply with quote  #587 
We've had elections in the Netherlands and you can find some of the main results here:

The big question everyone abroad seemed to ask is how Geert Wilders would do. The media all seem to give their own spin on it. The mainstream media largely suggests that Wilders lost (the rather biased title of the article above is an example), while some right-wing online media suggest that he won. I would say the result is more boring: he neither did very well nor very bad. Wilders won some seats, but only got back half of what he lost in 2012 and is therefore still far below his 2010 result. He is the second party in the Netherlands now, but the second party has never been so small. I guess it depends on how you look at it, but I will say that with the huge attention that the migration topic got in the last few years you could have expected him to do better.

As the above suggests, we have now become so fragmented that a cabinet of three parties has become impossible. There is literally no combination of three that reaches 76/150 seats.

It is pretty obvious that we will get a cabinet of right-wing liberals and Christian democrats now (VVD + CDA + D66 + CU). Everyone else still says that all options are on the table (except for working with Wilders, everyone has excluded that beforehand), but the combination I named is one of parties with similar economic ideas and has a majority in the senate. The combination of these benefits really can't be beaten by any other coalition. We will see if my prediction comes true.

Posts: 4,470
Reply with quote  #588,_2017

Japan heads for early elections with the LDP and Shinzo Abe seeking another term in power, which is generally the expected outcome.

However, this election is interesting as the opposition is fragmented and has undergone yet another re-branding and reorganisation. Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike has formed the Party of Hope, and has absorbed the conservative wing of the now defunct Democratic Party (DP) including such figures as Seiji Maehara and Akihisa Nagashima. The Restoration Party, another right-leaning group, is allying itself with Koike in this election.

The DP's progressive wing is rebranding itself as the Constitutional Democratic Party, "constitutional" in that it opposes revision to the constitution. Its allies include the Liberal Party and SDP, and the Communist in name only JCP, all of which form Japan's "peace camp".

There is no difference between Abe and Koike on national identity, security and foreign policy. Such that they could work in a potential coalition government. Both support constitutional revision, so if Abe wins a majority he can be assured of their support in this project.
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